Statistics in Politics

    Since the invention of polls, the media has taken the mood of a nation and tried spinning the results toward a possible conclusion. Trying to determine the pulse of a nationwhat they are thinking, who they are supporting (and opposing) and what issues are considered hot button. While people can debate the merits of a certain topichealthcare is a prime examplepolls have a unique opportunity to show those interested what people believe.

    When Barack Obama took office nearly one year ago, polls were tracking his every move. Because Obama is the first U.S. President of color, his every move was scrutinized. Just before the election, Sen. Obama had a 67 percent approval rating. (USA Election Polls, 2008) Obama was helped out by the struggling economy, a lame-duck president in George W. Bush and an opponent, Sen. John McCain, who was having trouble getting his key messages out to the mainstream media.

    Obamas poll numbers regarding his signature fightcomprehensive healthcare reformsuggest that this fight is still slightly in his favor. More than half the people surveyed in November, 2009 said they are in favor of overhauling the healthcare system. (USA Election Polls, 2009). An average of 54 percent said they would support a chance in the current system to account for the uninsured, underinsured, and businesses who are footing the bill.  Nearly 40 percent of those surveyed were opposed to having the current system changed. (2008)
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    These figures do not signal a mandate for the president to get something done. It does signal that the general public wants something done now. With unemployment rates rising nationwide, people losing their homes because they defaulted on their mortgage payments, people need to feel better about their respective futures.

    Statistics are used for numerous applications, such as gauging the feelings of a particular issue. We just saw the numbers for President Obama being favorable and those polled wanting changes to the current healthcare system.  What about some other issues that are considered hot button
    One of the hottest topics is abortion. Even with the healthcare issue, some people are fighting for legislation that would ban federal monies being used to perform abortions. Whether that would derail the entire program if enacted would be up for debate. What is known is the American people are divided over this issue. Recent polls performed in October demonstrate there are feelings on both sides. Newsweek polled Americans and found more than 65 percent of those questioned said they are pro-choice. (Polling Numbers, 2009) Conversely, only 24 percent polled said they consider themselves pro-life.

    Here is where polls can be manipulated depending on the source. FOX News conducted their own survey in which 47 percent said they consider themselves pro-life as opposed to 47 percent of those who introduced them as pro-choice. FOX News is considered a station with more conservative views, and thus, slants their research toward issues that they favor. Topics ranging from abortion to capital punishment would be biased towards prohibiting either event to take place on American soil.

    Since FOX is bent toward the Republican view, what if there is a survey indicating a
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preference of presidential hopefuls. One of those people mentioned in the November 17, 2009 poll was former Alaska Governor and recent vice-presidential candidate Sarah Palin. The question was asked, Is Sarah Palin viable as a future presidential candidate (Free Republic, 2009) The overwhelming response was, no, shes too polarizing, which was answered by 62 percent of those polled. 20 percent of those polled said she could be if she raided her game and 16 percent said she has the charisma to win. (2009)

    Given that her book tour did very well drawing large crowds, Palin does have a chance to make some noise in the 2010 mid-term elections and possibly on a national stage in 2012. That said, resigning as Alaskas top executive in the middle of her first term and refusing to answer media inquiries during her book tour gives pause to the viability of whether Palin has the goods to succeed nationally.

    Statistics can be shaped to sink a campaign to elevate to popular status. McCains selection of Palin was initially seen as a bold move as an outside-the-box selection. It was also seen as a slight to Obama, who selected Delaware Sen. Joseph Biden as his vice-presidential pick. Biden has been a career politician who is well connected with Washington politics.

McCain received a bump in the polls resulting from the move. Frank Newport wrote in Gallup that during the summer months showed that the Republican base was enthusiastic about a female vice-presidential candidate on the ticket (Newport, 2008) The numbers showed a rise in Republicans who were interested in voting in the 2008 election. Their numbers jumped by more than 20 percent (39 percent in July 2008 to 60 percent in September 2008). (Newport, 2008)

Adding to the mix was the Republican National Convention has just been held.

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Politicians often get a bump in the approval ratings after the several-day event concludes. This time was no exception for the McCain-Palin ticket. There was optimism for the ticket and their supporters to feel good about themselves.

    That was, until Palin begin talking. Her ill-fated interview with CBS News Anchor Katie Couric opened Palin up to ridicule, scorn, and the punch line on late-night talk shows. Looking flustered and combative, Palin lost style points and votes as she stumbled through a litany of questions.

    The end result was a drop in performance for the Republican ticket. McCains numbers slipped because of the interview (although she held her own during the debate with Biden). People did not see her as a viable candidate after the CBS interview and McCains bid for president took a nosedive.

    McCain was seen as pandering to women who may have felt disrespected by Obamas vice-presidential selection. Making matters worse, his selection backfired because Palin was not sticking to the message, found problems related to the Couric interview and just being reactive to the Democrats constant hammering.
    The results were beginning to reflect the Republicans fears. During the latter months of the 2008 campaign, GOP leaders were concerned about the ability of Palin to make a comeback. The consensus by GOP leaders was that Palin was doing more harm to the ticket than helping. (Burns and Alexander, 2008)
    While some people within the party asked the then-Alaskan governor to step aside, others came to her defense, saying that she was doing fine and that anyone could have been nervous during the interview. The problem was Palin being a novice on the national political stage   
  
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becoming a distraction for the McCain campaign. Although the party did not want to admit they might have made a mistake, they were secretly hoping that McCains VP choice was a sound.

    It proved not to be the case. When Election Night 2008 ended, Obama won with 53 percent of the votes to McCains 46 percent. This is the only poll that matters. Obama easily won the Electoral College vote as well to become president. The McCain camp can only wonder what went wrong after the conventionif choosing Palin was the best move or backfired.

    The hope is that stats tell a story at a particular moment in time. Sometimes, it is dead-on correct and other times, it is not that accurate. The 2008 presidential election was close leading up to the finals weeks. All four candidates (two presidential and two vice presidential candidates) did their best to use polls, the media and their supporters to get out the word and encourage people to vote. That is the good news. Unfortunately for McCain this numbers just did not add up to a victory in the only poll that mattersthe one on Election Night.

    What we can learn from this is to keep listening to the electorate because they shape policyto change or stay the course. Something this popular today might be background material tomorrow. Polls are useful tools that can have an impact on the issues at hand. How they are used and to what capacity determines who gets the final word.

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