Authenticity of Concerns about Climate Change and Global Warming and its Impacts on International Relations
In every society all over the world, there are often complicated societal problems. There is often much uncertainty which characterize the point in time when the problem begun and what started it. The available knowledge and data concerning the problem are often in contradiction with each other. When the problem is in a global scale such as climate change, many nations, economies, cultures and traditions come to play with regard to finding a common solution which further complicates the process of handling the problem. Much debate has emerged in recent times concerning the issue of climate change and global warming.
Societies are often affected greatly by complex societal problems. The process often involves numerous individuals and actors such as decision makers, governments, international organizations, financial institutions and large companies. Each actor often has his own interpretation of the problem and often attempts to achieve his own goal apart from advancing his own interests towards the problem. The composition of actors involved in the process often changes during the process of handling the problem. Handling the problem of climate change and global warming involves some degree of knowledge, in most cases lack of it or uncertain knowledge, and the power and interests of the various actors that are involved in the process.
In order to fully understand the phenomenon, there is need for a long term integral approach especially when handling problems associated with climate change. Integral in terms of reflecting on the causes of the climate change problem, integral interventions of all the dimensions of the problem, and an integral implementations of climate change intervention and adaptation to climate change matters. However, this has not been achieved with regard to global warming and climate change owing to the tendency to privatize the merits of the problems and to socialize the costs. Being politically vulnerable, the problem of climate change has limited the influence of scientists. It is only scientists who can suggest the best way that a complex societal problem can be handled, how the uncertainties can be handled and how the problems can be optimally handled in the interest of the general public. However, it is the politicians who determine the interventions. In real life situation, complicated problems are not often handled optimally. In the handling of such problems, there is always the tendency to directly jump to solutions without investing time in exploring the problem.
This paper seeks to address the realities of global warming and how it is being handled. Of specific concern is the reason why there is much contention regarding the issue of climate change and global warming. The importance of this investigation lies in the fact that the issue of global climate change has shown its impacts within the realms of international relations and is likely to impact further on societies. As mentioned, it is the politicians who determine interventions whenever there is perceived problem and once contention characterize such sensitive issues like climate change and global warming, its impacts are likely to be magnified within the fields of global politics. For instance, it highlights the effectiveness of international treaties as tools for regulating the behavior of nations. Beyond this, it exposes the limited influence of international law.
Research questions
It is no longer a secret that earths climate is changing it has always changed. Scientists and environmentalists have been at the forefront in creating an awareness of this phenomenon which threaten the survival of not only the human race but also life in the planet. The causes of this change in climate have been attributed to human activities especially within the past hundred years. These activities are among other things a consequence of industrialization. There has been concerted effort to reverse this trend among the nations. Even though it is expected that every human individual, every people and every nation should support any move meant to save the planet, this has not been the case. Is it because the issue of climate change is unfounded or it is not associated in any way with human activity Is this reluctance among nations an indication that climate change is not as serious as might be thought, or it is a natural phenomenon that has no association with human activities If climate change and global warming is such an important issue, then why is it that political entities have failed to reach a consensus concerning the way that the trend is going to be reverse
This paper aims to investigate fundamental questions concerning the issue of climate change and global warming. Of basic concern are
Are concerns about climate change and global warming genuine
Why are scientists, politicians and commentators divided on the issue of climate change and global warming
How will global climate change impact on international relations
How do policy makers arrive at decisions concerning climate change mitigation policy.
Background to the Problem
Climate change and global warming is the most serious of all the issues that have surfaced within the past few decades. It has also become the most difficult to manage. Owing to the magnitude and severity of harms that might accompany climate change and global warming, they have emerged to be the most serious that humanity is grappling with. Numerous dimensions of human society and wellbeing are dependent to a greater extent on climatic conditions. However, this dependence has been obscured and reduced in modern industrial societies by technology and wealth. The reliance on climate can be seen in the economic damages and human suffering that have been caused by climate variations during the past century such as draughts and the El Nino cycle. The projections for climatic change in the twenty first century are much higher than for the previous centuries with the corresponding human impacts being greater.
There is much uncertainty for the projections for the twenty first century climate change. However, much has been said concerning the scientific uncertainty and its employment in policy debates. However, a basic fact about skepticism is that it cuts both ways. If there is uncertainty in the projected climate change in the twenty first-century, then the actual changes may be smaller or larger than are now being projected. This uncertainty concerning how the climate will change makes the issue of climate change even more serious. The current projections of the twenty-first century climate change include sustained rapid changes that seem to have few precedents in earths history and whose effects on human well-being and society may be catastrophic.
The Kyoto Protocol was the first international treaty to restrict the human contribution to the global climate change. This treaty came into force in the February of 2005. With this significant step in human history, the majority of worlds industrial countries became subjected to binding obligations to minimize the green-house emissions that are identified as contributing to global climate change. The event also deepened the preexisting divisions among nations that have witnessed unprecedented growth within the past decade. The widest division exists between the majority of industrialized nations being led by the European Union and Japan, and the United States. The former have embraced the protocol while the latter has rejected it. What is interesting is that the United States, the most advanced country in the world today, has rejected the protocol together with other proposals for near-term measures to reduce or limit green-house emissions while it is the same emissions that are held to be responsible for global climate change.
Even among the nations that have joined Kyoto, there is much disparity concerning the seriousness and timing of the emission-limiting measures that have been adopted, and consequently of the possibility of realizing the required reductions. If it is true that these emissions are responsible for the condition of the global climate today, then it is apparent that failure to reduce these emissions will invariably spell doom to the human race and life in the planet. In a matter as sensitive as preserving the planet for future generations, there is need for nations to come together and find a lasting solution.
Apart from the divisions among the industrialized countries, there is also a very big difference between the industrialized and developing countries. The protocol only requires a reduction of emissions by industrialized countries. It does not provide particular obligation for developing countries to limit their emissions. It is this issue that has emerged to be the sharpest controversial point. This controversy is particularly serious owing to the fact that that the protocol aims to control the emissions by industrialized countries for a period of five years from 2008 to 2012. The protocol does not have any particular policies or obligations beyond the year 2012 for either the developing or industrialized countries. While the protocol represents a noble first step towards a solid response to climate change, there is basically no progress in negotiating the wider and long term changes that will be needed to slow, stop or even reverse any human induced climate changes that are taking place.
With the political divisions growing sharper, there has also been much heat concerning public arguments with regard to what is known about climate change. It cannot be denied that climate change is the most contentious environmental matter that has been witnessed in the recent past. Newspapers and policy debates are dominated with arguments concerning whether the climate is changing or not, whether human activities are responsible for this change, and the speed and extent to which the climate is going to change in future, the scope and seriousness of its impacts, what can be done and at what cost. The arguments that have been advanced are very intense because the stakes are high. However, the bitter public disagreements between politicians, commentators and scientists over issues that seem to be questions of scientific knowledge is not only troubling but also worrying.
This research paper proposes to investigate the reason behind the divergent views concerning climate change. In particular, it will seek to assess the scientific and policy arguments that have been advanced concerning climate change and global warming. The paper will consider scientific issues that form the basis of climatic change science debate. It will also review the current scientific knowledge and skepticism concerning climate change and how the knowledge is being used in public and policy debates. The paper also seeks to assess the interaction between political and scientific debates and address the important issue of why the debate surrounding climate change and global warming is contentious and confusing while the majority of the involved parties claim that their arguments scientifically founded.
Literature Review
A section of environmental scientists across the world have raised an alarm to the effect that global warming, a consequence of human activities, is threatening the common future of human beings. To these scientists, there is credible evidence to support the view that earths atmosphere is wearing up due to global warming. In this regard, they hold that global warming is real and is already happening with the anticipated consequences being unacceptable.
Other individuals have on the other hand argued that not much is known concerning the phenomenon. The proponents of this argument hold that the view that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases will ultimately result in further warming is an oversimplification. According to them, this view is not consistent with the fact that there is no significant warming suggested by satellite measurements in the past two decades in the lower atmosphere which is central to global warming theory.
Scientists themselves disagree on whether global warming can be attributed to human activities or whether the activities are likely to trigger natural disasters. Those who dismiss global warming as a fad therefore hold that the claim about global warming as a consequence of man-made emissions is simply unfounded and not based on any sound science. They further claim that carbon dioxide does not cause catastrophic disasters and is instead beneficial to the environment and the economy. From all these views, the credibility concerning the issue of global warming as being man-made is in question.
The science on which the Kyoto was founded has not been capable of addressing all the fundamental questions. The most dazzling question is why the earth warmed so much during the initial part of the twentieth century before the carbon-dioxide emissions boom. Another question that has been raised concerns the reason why the near earth atmosphere is not warming as much as the surface of the earth. There is also the problem concerning the difference between temperatures a century ago and the current temperature which does not indicate much disparity.
The occurrence of global warming has been denied by other scientists as a fad. These scientists reiterate that the earths climate has not warmed in the past two decades. They argue that the view of the warming of the climate is entirely based on thermometer data. According to them, superior observations from weather satellite and independent radiosonde data from weather balloons contradict this supposition. Non-thermometer data taken from ice cores, tree rings and other proxy data suggest that there is no current warming and the view that the twentieth century was the warmest in the past millennium undermines and misuses such proxy data. In this regard, the proponents of this view hold that this claim that climate models reproduce accurately records of temperature of the past century is spurious.
To those arguing that global warming is real, they attribute this phenomenon to human activities. The simplest measure of this change, according to the proponents of this view, is the earths average temperature which they argue has risen by an estimated 0.7 degree Celsius over the past century. The bulk of this increase has occurred in the past two decades. The implication, according to them, is that the world is going through a period of global warming. Their projection is that the problem of climate change will be worse by the year 2050.
The proponents of these views hold that it is a well known fact that the atmosphere, oceans and land are heating and if the climate model projections on the degree of warming are correct, then the sea levels will continue to rise for the next century. They expect that the glaciers will experience faster rates of melting and there will be significant increases in rainfall intensity. Further, there will be hurricanes. Like those who oppose the reality of global warming, the proponents of these views also hold that these projections are founded on strong scientific data. They dismiss arguments that appear to insist that there is no global warming as unscientifically founded.
The intensity of disagreements that are exuded over what might be expected to be simple issues of scientific knowledge of whether the earth is warming or not is one of the most outstanding dimensions of this debate. The heated public confrontation concerning uncertainty and the state of scientific knowledge leads to very major confusions. The state of political and public debates concerning the issue makes it difficult for non-specialists to comprehend what these advocates are arguing about or to pass judgment concerning the strength of the competing arguments.
The issue of climate change and its possible impacts
Climate change is best conceived as a threat multiplier which aggravates the existing trends, tensions and instability. The main challenge is that it threatens to overburden regions and states that are already unstable and prone to conflict. The risks are not only humanitarian in nature but also encompass political and security risks. With regard to the concept of human security, various issues that are associated with the effects of climate change on international security are interrelated and therefore demand for comprehensive analysis and response.
Global warming has been associated with competition for natural resources. In many parts of the world, there is widespread water shortage, reduction in cultivatable land, dwindling of food and fish stocks, increased flooding and prolonged droughts. The patterns of rainfall are likely to be altered by climate change which will further minimize the available fresh water by 20 to 30 percent in some regions. These impacts have been reported in the southeastern and western parts of the United States which in 2007 experienced severe to exceptional draught. Some researchers have reported that over the past decade, the harsh reality of the global warming has been especially witnessed in America West. The impacts have also been experienced by Australia that recently suffered from heat waves and incidences of wildfires.
The falling water level in Lake Powell and Lake Mead are also some powerful instances of the severity of the water crisis. The two lakes supply water to power to millions of Americans in the American Southwest. It is projected that the two lakes stand a chance of running dry by the year 2021 owing to the increasing demand for water and the impacts of global warming. But the question that is bound to be raised concerns whether these impacts emanate from changes in climatic conditions. Put in another way, can the water crises be attributed to the impacts of climate change A study by Barnett and colleagues investigated this question and reported that an estimated 60 percent of climate associated trends in the flow of rivers, winter air temperatures and snowpack between 1950 and 1999 in the western sections of the United States are human induced through emissions. The shortage of water has the potential of causing civil unrest and result in significant economic losses even in a robust economy like the United States.
A reduction in agricultural productivity will invariably result in food insecurity in least developed countries. Similarly, the shortage of water is likely to have dire consequences in regions under strong demographic pressure. The overall impact is that changes in climate will trigger existing conflicts over depleting resources particularly where access to such resources has been politicized.
It is being approximated that handling climate change may cost the world economy up to twenty percent of global GDP annually. About one-fifth of the worlds population live in coastal regions and this population may go up in the coming years. Large cities, with their supporting infrastructure like oil refineries and port facilities, are often located by the sea or river deltas. The rise in sea levels associated with climate change and global warming, and the magnitude and intensity of natural disasters often pose a serious threat to these regions and their economic prospects. Past disasters have shown that the East coasts China and India, the Caribbean region and Central America are especially vulnerable. Whenever there is an increase in disasters and humanitarian crises, there is always an immense pressure on resources from donor countries.
Scientists have also projected major changes in landmass during the twenty-first century. There is high likelihood that submergence of large sections and receding coastlines may lead to loss of territory which may include entire nations such as small island states. The world may witness increased disputes over maritime borders and lands. Various international laws may have to be amended in order to accommodate the changing territorial composition. Another aspect of competition for energy resources is based on the potential conflict over resources in the polar region which may become exploitable due to global warming. A vicious circle of migration, degradation and conflict over borders and territory would be triggered by desertification and this may threaten the political stability of regions and countries.
The instability in weak states may be significantly increased by climate change through overstretching the capacity of governments to adequately respond to the challenges that they face. This inability of governments to satisfy the needs of the entire population or to offer protection in the face of hardship induced by climate change may motivate frustration, result n in ethnic and religious tension within nations and political radicalization. This may result in instability for countries and even entire regions.
Intensified competition over access and control of energy resources may also result in conflict. This will continue to be a major cause of instability. A large percentage of the worlds hydrocarbon reserves are situated in regions that have been identified to be vulnerable to climate change. Instability is likely to increase in such regions since the majority of oil and gas producing nations are already faced with demographic, social and economic challenges. In this regard, there is high likelihood of instability in such regions. It has the potential of feeding back into the greater insecurity and resource competition. A likely greater use of nuclear energy may result in new proliferation concerns. The scramble for resources is likely to become more intense as hitherto inaccessible regions open up due to the impacts of global warming.
Failure of the international community to critically assess the issue of climate change and global warming is likely to threaten the multilateral system. The effects of climate change are likely to lead to politics of bitterness between people who are seen to be responsible for climate change and those that are feeling its worst impacts. The effects of climate mitigation policies will therefore drive political tensions both within boundaries of a nation and internationally. The potential differences will not only divide the west and the east, north and south but there is also likely to be a south-south aspect especially when the share of Indian and Chinese emissions goes up. In this regard, there will be much pressure on the already burdened international security.
Future Research
The investigation and analysis provided in this paper is entirely based on reports and data from other work. This is because of lack of adequate resources in terms of time and money to conduct a comprehensive research on the issue of climate change and global warming. However, the materials that have been used in writing this paper also present contradictory findings which may not lead to a conclusive analysis. Basically, this paper has been a review of literature on climate change and global warming with very minimal actual research on the topic.
Given time and resources to conduct research on this very thorny issue of climate change and global warming, my major goal would be to investigate how policy makers approach issues of climate change when designing mitigation policy. This is because it is important to know how the policy makers approach this issue in light of the controversy that surrounds climate change and global warming. In order to satisfactorily investigate this issue, I will conduct a conjoint choice analysis which may help in assessing how policy makers exchange criteria in the design of climate change mitigation policy.
This is my preferred method because conjoint choice analysis technique will not require many resources. The technique require respondents to choose the most preferred attribute after being shown various representations of a good described by a set of attributes. The available alternatives vary from one another in the level that two or more attributes take. When the conjoint choice technique is applied, it may bring much information concerning the importance of criteria in suggesting the choice of the optimal policy instrument.
The conjoint choice analysis enables interviews, data collection and data analysis to be conducted online. Therefore, it makes it enables the collection of data from various locations around the world possible which is likely to result in conclusive analysis. The nature of the investigation makes it very difficult to conduct research through traditional methods.
Annotated Bibliography
Dinar, Ariel. Measuring the Impact of Climate Change on Indian Agriculture, Issue 402 of World Bank technical paper, World Bank Publications, 1998
The plethora of books and articles published so far underscores the importance of global warming and climate change. On the other hand, many of these articles criticize the scientific projections of global warming. This book reiterates that most of these criticisms, as well as the seemingly irresolvable controversies surrounding global warming debate are simply a consequence of the inability of general circulation models (GCMs) to accurately present the complex nature of our climate system. Notably, most of these articles have taken issue with the unilateral imposition of carbon dioxide emission standards. However, despite these issues, it the causal role of greenhouse gases has been fully extrapolated and accepted. Sophisticated circulation models are currently being used to project the effects of greenhouse gas emissions on climatic variables like precipitation, temperature and solar radiation.
On the basis of numerical GCMs presented in popular and scientific literature, especially the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO), the book assesses the impacts of global warming on India. The author notes that the lack of variability with the projections makes the predictions of precipitation and temperature unreliable. The strength of this book lies in its comprehensive comparative analysis of the different GCMs used in the prediction of global warming and climate change. The lack of variability as shown in the India case may serve as an impetus for reconciling the differences between the general circulation models.
Edward, Pearson. Dessler, Andrew. The Science and Politics of Global Climate Change A Guide to the Debate. London Cambridge University Press, 1995.
Dessler and colleagues investigate the controversy and confusion that characterize confusion over climate change. They explore the arguments of those who hold that there is clear evidence of a coming climate crisis. They also assess the position of those who argue that there is insufficient evidence to support climate change and global warming.
In their assessment, they unearth the confusions over climate change and global warming even among the supporters. They argue that both the critics and proponents of climate change and global warming may both not be right in their arguments. As such, they argue that non-specialists find it difficult to sort out and assess the contending claims owing to the attempt to present the arguments for and against global warming in a balanced way.
This kind of antagonism stands in the stage for simple individual actions that can be taken to mitigate against global warming. In conclusion, the book offers a way forward in resolving the conflicting positions of critics and proponents of different views of global warming. The book is an important resource for all students interested in environmental law, international relations, and political science, in addition to the science courses.
Emanuel, K.A. Extreme Weather. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 89 v. 3 (2008)347-367.
Emanuel produces a comprehensive analysis of how the United States and Canada has been transformed and is still being transformed by climate change. He places special focus on events that have been categorized as extreme. From his analysis, he finds that North America will experience destabilizing climatic conditions due to greenhouse gas emissions. He employs the current climate models to suggest that the extreme events are likely to be common place. He suggests that extreme weather conditions will likely be the most serious challenges that the society will have to cope with.
Ferrar, Amy. Global Warming Essential Viewpoints, ABDO Group, 2007
This book begins by presenting the case of Glacier National Park located in Northern Montana. For more than ten decades, this park has been welcoming visitors who come to camp, hike, view wildlife, or wade in the pristine streams fed by glacial melts. Driving to go and watch the massive glaciers has been one of the most memorable events for those visiting Glacier National Park. Apart from these tourist ventures, the park is also an important scientific base for the study of global warming and climate change as it houses the Global Climate Change program. It is reported that in 1850, there were one hundred and fifty glaciers covering the northern Montana landscape. However, currently there are only twenty seven glaciers at the park. This is mainly attributable to the rise in temperatures which began in the late 1880s and has never ceased. The book notes that for the past one hundred and fifty years, the earths temperature has risen by an average of 0.76 degrees Celsius. Currently, global warming continues at a rate that can only be compared to the glacial period, some 200,000 years ago.
In a nutshell, the book presents practical examples backed by scientific evidence to show that global warming is not a myth but a reality. The main culprit in the worsening global warming situation is the combustion of fossil fuels such as petroleum, natural gas, and coal for industrial and transportation services. This fossil fuel gives off carbon dioxide which is the principal greenhouse gas.
Analytically, the book is a beginners guide to exploring the various controversies surrounding the global warming debate. By offering practical examples which can be seen by the naked eyes and linking the changes in glacial cover to the global temperature changes, it is a call for countries to limit their emission of carbon dioxide or else face disaster in the future. In core chapters, the book details Ways to Limit Greenhouse Gases, Policymakers Battle Global Warming, What Organizations Are Doing and the Future of Global Warming. The Essential Facts presentation is a useful reminder of the basics of global warming and climate change.
Houghton, John. Global Warming the Complete Briefing. London Cambridge University Press, 2004.
Houghton provides important information about global warming, Earths carbon cycle and the greenhouse effect. It also discusses data on climate and the inferred climate changes of the past. The source describes climate models, simulations and the probable effects of climate change. Even though Houghton concurs that global warming may pose serious threat to future survival, he also acknowledge that that skepticism concerning the subject are justifiable.
The book presents an in depth exploration of the scientific basis of global warming as well as the likely effects of climate change on the society at large. Again, Houghton (2004) goes on to address the various actions that can be taken by individuals, the industrial sector and the government to mitigate the effects of global warming. Being one of the few authors with more than a decade of experience in writing about global warming, the book definitely charts the changes in argument and positions over the more than ten years period.
Mark, Maslin. Global Warming Causes, Effects and the Future. Voyageur Press, 2007.
Maslin defines and provide an overview of global warming. He then looks at the causes of the phenomenon and produces evidence and effects of global warming. According to him, there is sufficient evidence for global warming and what remains to be done is to find solutions for this problem. He proposes what needs to be done concerning this problem which is not far from the solutions that have been forwarded by other authors. The source predicts the likely consequences that might accompany the destruction of the Amazon and Gulf Stream rain forest and Gulf Stream.
Different authors have dealt with the issue of global warming at different levels. Mark (2007), present a very comprehensive analysis of the issue by drawing from a huge base of research evidence to inform the causes, effects, and future expectations. It succeeds in presenting the whole picture of the phenomenon as a whole and offers an insight into the types of measures that can be adopted to ease the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. By specifically pinpointing the Gulf stream and Amazon rainforests as particularly vulnerable habitats whose destruction may spell disaster for humankind, the book indirectly calls for urgent actions to be taken to protect all vulnerable habitats through the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.
Saunders, Stephen, Charles Montgomery, Tom Easley. Hotter Drier the Wests changed Climate. NRDC, 2 (2008).
Saunders and colleagues present climate data taken in particular regions in the United States. According to them, the level of water in two American Lakes is reducing. They further found report on the current trend of draught and floods which they hold to have gone up during the recent times. According to them, these events are consequences of climate change due to global warming. They project that the situation is likely to get worse in the future with a high likelihood of the lakes drying within a period of thirty to fifty years.
Even though Sanders and colleagues present important data on United States climatic changes, these changes cannot be entirely attributed to global warming. The climatic conditions are not dynamic and is therefore are subject to change.
Singer, Fred Siegfried. Avery, Dennis T. Unstoppable global warming every 1,500 years, Rowman Littlefield Publishers, Inc. Maryland, 2007
The fact that the earth is warming is indisputable. Physical evidence also attests to the fact that human emitted carbon dioxide plays only a small role in the warming of the earth. As such it human emitted greenhouses gases should be understood as being mere actors in a natural mild warming phenomenon that characterizes the 1,500 year climate cycle. From the Roman records dating from 200 B.C to 600 A.D, to the medieval histories of Asia and Europe, medieval warming was detected but regarded as climatic shifts rather than being part of continuing phenomena. Thus, even though there exists a wealth of evidence supporting the occurrence of climate changes every 1500, plus or minus 500 years the green house theory has risen in prominence.
The authors present the 1,500 year cycle of climate change drawing from the analysis of Dansgaard and Oeschgers climatic cycle which is supported by studies of ice core in the Arctic, Asia, North America, New Zealand, Antarctic, and Europe. The cycle is also supported by findings of seabed sediment cores, cave stalagnites, fossilized fuel and many more. According to the authors, the earth continually warms and cools. The cycle is undeniable, ancient, often abrupt, and global (Singer Avery, 2010). By presenting the facts surrounding the natural occurrence of 1500 cycle, Singer Avery succeed at showing the insignificance of human related activities in the exacerbating or causing global warming. Most importantly, the author draws the reader to independently read the various causes of global warming and decide the significance of human activities.
In a nutshell, the book presents strong scientific evidence for the role of natural factors in the ongoing global warming and climate change. By analyzing the current changes under the context of the 1500 year climatic cycle, it offers an alternative front for further research. A front which is different from the one offered by those supporting the greenhouse theory. The book is useful for both lecturers, students, and researchers as an in depth reference material.
Singer, Fred. Bad data make global warming a cold case. Wall Street Journal, 2003 p.A17
Singer argues that there is no sufficient data to warrant the claim about global warming. According to him, the available data suggest that proxy data does not suggest any change in the climate over the past few decades as argued by the advocates of global warming.
Singer does not seem to provide any convincing explanation to the recent changes in climatic conditions. This source however makes a strong case for the skeptics as it suggests that the available data may be interpreted to support the view that climate change and global warming are hoaxes.
Even through the author fails to provide sufficient evidence to support the current context where there has been a sudden upsurge in global warming and associated effects, his opinion still holds because it is supported by hundreds of years of climatic data and predictions. However, these data do not explain the rapid changes in global surface temperatures ever since human beings began exploiting fossil fuels, and instituting changes in land use patterns. Nonetheless, the text is a useful information source for the natural causes of global warming and climate change. It is also a useful reference tool for researchers intent on comparing the different arguments posited by different authors in the global warming and climate change debate.
Victor, David. The Kyoto Protocol and the Struggle to Slow Global Warming. Princeton Princeton University Press, 2001.
Even as more evidence of global warming surfaces, the international response to this threat is divisive. Nations are finding it difficult to meet their Kyoto commitment. Developing countries on the other hand do not have any limit to their emissions. David Victor provides an explanation of why the Kyoto Protocol was unlikely to become an effective instrument. He assesses how its collapse provides opportunities to create a more realistic alternative. According to Victor, the international treaties like Kyoto can only function when emission trading becomes functional.
The Kyoto Protocol requires industrialized nations to minimize their greenhouse gas emissions to specific levels. Victor views the collapse of the Kyoto protocol as inevitable. At the same time, he sees it as providing the political space for rethinking strategy. Better alternatives, in his view, will be based on policies meant to control emissions. This source provides an important analysis of the role of nations with regard to global warming and climate change. It looks at the foundational principles of the Kyoto Protocol which was meant to reduce the adverse effects of global warming.
While Kyoto may have been one of the best strategies adopted to curb the increasing global surface temperatures by pushing countries to take decisive steps in curbing their own greenhouse gas emissions, analysis of the text yields insights into the reasons behind its failure in meeting its objectives and the desirability of a better protocol. For students studying the legal measures that can be instituted to curb the increasing global surface temperatures, this book is extremely useful.
Weart, Spenser. The Discovery of Global Warming. London Harvard University Press, 2004.
Weart traces the history of global warming from the moment when world governments and scientists agreed that the Earth is heating up in rate that has not been witnessed before. He also illuminates on how the conclusion concerning global warming was reached by the scientists. According to this source, the conclusion was a consequence of unprecedented twists and turns coupled with formidable intellectual, scientific and political obstacles. He further explains the relationship between politicians and scientists in the face of the issue of global warming. He admits that the issue of global warming and climate change is challenging to scientist and hence full certainty cannot be realized.
It is important to reiterate that for the author to satisfactorily chart the relationship between scientific evidence and politics in the resolution of the climate change phenomenon, the book suggests that given that the legal framework is political in nature, any strategies adopted to curb the worsening global warming trend must be congruent to the political demands in different countries. Despite an avalanche of scientific evidence about the occurrence and potential impacts of the phenomenon, the political establishment has not been able to institute strategies aimed at curbing any additional increases in greenhouse emissions. As opposed to other texts offering just the scientific arguments for either the man-made causes or the natural causes, this book ties together different facets and presents climate change in the context of political, intellectual, and scientific environment.
Societies are often affected greatly by complex societal problems. The process often involves numerous individuals and actors such as decision makers, governments, international organizations, financial institutions and large companies. Each actor often has his own interpretation of the problem and often attempts to achieve his own goal apart from advancing his own interests towards the problem. The composition of actors involved in the process often changes during the process of handling the problem. Handling the problem of climate change and global warming involves some degree of knowledge, in most cases lack of it or uncertain knowledge, and the power and interests of the various actors that are involved in the process.
In order to fully understand the phenomenon, there is need for a long term integral approach especially when handling problems associated with climate change. Integral in terms of reflecting on the causes of the climate change problem, integral interventions of all the dimensions of the problem, and an integral implementations of climate change intervention and adaptation to climate change matters. However, this has not been achieved with regard to global warming and climate change owing to the tendency to privatize the merits of the problems and to socialize the costs. Being politically vulnerable, the problem of climate change has limited the influence of scientists. It is only scientists who can suggest the best way that a complex societal problem can be handled, how the uncertainties can be handled and how the problems can be optimally handled in the interest of the general public. However, it is the politicians who determine the interventions. In real life situation, complicated problems are not often handled optimally. In the handling of such problems, there is always the tendency to directly jump to solutions without investing time in exploring the problem.
This paper seeks to address the realities of global warming and how it is being handled. Of specific concern is the reason why there is much contention regarding the issue of climate change and global warming. The importance of this investigation lies in the fact that the issue of global climate change has shown its impacts within the realms of international relations and is likely to impact further on societies. As mentioned, it is the politicians who determine interventions whenever there is perceived problem and once contention characterize such sensitive issues like climate change and global warming, its impacts are likely to be magnified within the fields of global politics. For instance, it highlights the effectiveness of international treaties as tools for regulating the behavior of nations. Beyond this, it exposes the limited influence of international law.
Research questions
It is no longer a secret that earths climate is changing it has always changed. Scientists and environmentalists have been at the forefront in creating an awareness of this phenomenon which threaten the survival of not only the human race but also life in the planet. The causes of this change in climate have been attributed to human activities especially within the past hundred years. These activities are among other things a consequence of industrialization. There has been concerted effort to reverse this trend among the nations. Even though it is expected that every human individual, every people and every nation should support any move meant to save the planet, this has not been the case. Is it because the issue of climate change is unfounded or it is not associated in any way with human activity Is this reluctance among nations an indication that climate change is not as serious as might be thought, or it is a natural phenomenon that has no association with human activities If climate change and global warming is such an important issue, then why is it that political entities have failed to reach a consensus concerning the way that the trend is going to be reverse
This paper aims to investigate fundamental questions concerning the issue of climate change and global warming. Of basic concern are
Are concerns about climate change and global warming genuine
Why are scientists, politicians and commentators divided on the issue of climate change and global warming
How will global climate change impact on international relations
How do policy makers arrive at decisions concerning climate change mitigation policy.
Background to the Problem
Climate change and global warming is the most serious of all the issues that have surfaced within the past few decades. It has also become the most difficult to manage. Owing to the magnitude and severity of harms that might accompany climate change and global warming, they have emerged to be the most serious that humanity is grappling with. Numerous dimensions of human society and wellbeing are dependent to a greater extent on climatic conditions. However, this dependence has been obscured and reduced in modern industrial societies by technology and wealth. The reliance on climate can be seen in the economic damages and human suffering that have been caused by climate variations during the past century such as draughts and the El Nino cycle. The projections for climatic change in the twenty first century are much higher than for the previous centuries with the corresponding human impacts being greater.
There is much uncertainty for the projections for the twenty first century climate change. However, much has been said concerning the scientific uncertainty and its employment in policy debates. However, a basic fact about skepticism is that it cuts both ways. If there is uncertainty in the projected climate change in the twenty first-century, then the actual changes may be smaller or larger than are now being projected. This uncertainty concerning how the climate will change makes the issue of climate change even more serious. The current projections of the twenty-first century climate change include sustained rapid changes that seem to have few precedents in earths history and whose effects on human well-being and society may be catastrophic.
The Kyoto Protocol was the first international treaty to restrict the human contribution to the global climate change. This treaty came into force in the February of 2005. With this significant step in human history, the majority of worlds industrial countries became subjected to binding obligations to minimize the green-house emissions that are identified as contributing to global climate change. The event also deepened the preexisting divisions among nations that have witnessed unprecedented growth within the past decade. The widest division exists between the majority of industrialized nations being led by the European Union and Japan, and the United States. The former have embraced the protocol while the latter has rejected it. What is interesting is that the United States, the most advanced country in the world today, has rejected the protocol together with other proposals for near-term measures to reduce or limit green-house emissions while it is the same emissions that are held to be responsible for global climate change.
Even among the nations that have joined Kyoto, there is much disparity concerning the seriousness and timing of the emission-limiting measures that have been adopted, and consequently of the possibility of realizing the required reductions. If it is true that these emissions are responsible for the condition of the global climate today, then it is apparent that failure to reduce these emissions will invariably spell doom to the human race and life in the planet. In a matter as sensitive as preserving the planet for future generations, there is need for nations to come together and find a lasting solution.
Apart from the divisions among the industrialized countries, there is also a very big difference between the industrialized and developing countries. The protocol only requires a reduction of emissions by industrialized countries. It does not provide particular obligation for developing countries to limit their emissions. It is this issue that has emerged to be the sharpest controversial point. This controversy is particularly serious owing to the fact that that the protocol aims to control the emissions by industrialized countries for a period of five years from 2008 to 2012. The protocol does not have any particular policies or obligations beyond the year 2012 for either the developing or industrialized countries. While the protocol represents a noble first step towards a solid response to climate change, there is basically no progress in negotiating the wider and long term changes that will be needed to slow, stop or even reverse any human induced climate changes that are taking place.
With the political divisions growing sharper, there has also been much heat concerning public arguments with regard to what is known about climate change. It cannot be denied that climate change is the most contentious environmental matter that has been witnessed in the recent past. Newspapers and policy debates are dominated with arguments concerning whether the climate is changing or not, whether human activities are responsible for this change, and the speed and extent to which the climate is going to change in future, the scope and seriousness of its impacts, what can be done and at what cost. The arguments that have been advanced are very intense because the stakes are high. However, the bitter public disagreements between politicians, commentators and scientists over issues that seem to be questions of scientific knowledge is not only troubling but also worrying.
This research paper proposes to investigate the reason behind the divergent views concerning climate change. In particular, it will seek to assess the scientific and policy arguments that have been advanced concerning climate change and global warming. The paper will consider scientific issues that form the basis of climatic change science debate. It will also review the current scientific knowledge and skepticism concerning climate change and how the knowledge is being used in public and policy debates. The paper also seeks to assess the interaction between political and scientific debates and address the important issue of why the debate surrounding climate change and global warming is contentious and confusing while the majority of the involved parties claim that their arguments scientifically founded.
Literature Review
A section of environmental scientists across the world have raised an alarm to the effect that global warming, a consequence of human activities, is threatening the common future of human beings. To these scientists, there is credible evidence to support the view that earths atmosphere is wearing up due to global warming. In this regard, they hold that global warming is real and is already happening with the anticipated consequences being unacceptable.
Other individuals have on the other hand argued that not much is known concerning the phenomenon. The proponents of this argument hold that the view that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases will ultimately result in further warming is an oversimplification. According to them, this view is not consistent with the fact that there is no significant warming suggested by satellite measurements in the past two decades in the lower atmosphere which is central to global warming theory.
Scientists themselves disagree on whether global warming can be attributed to human activities or whether the activities are likely to trigger natural disasters. Those who dismiss global warming as a fad therefore hold that the claim about global warming as a consequence of man-made emissions is simply unfounded and not based on any sound science. They further claim that carbon dioxide does not cause catastrophic disasters and is instead beneficial to the environment and the economy. From all these views, the credibility concerning the issue of global warming as being man-made is in question.
The science on which the Kyoto was founded has not been capable of addressing all the fundamental questions. The most dazzling question is why the earth warmed so much during the initial part of the twentieth century before the carbon-dioxide emissions boom. Another question that has been raised concerns the reason why the near earth atmosphere is not warming as much as the surface of the earth. There is also the problem concerning the difference between temperatures a century ago and the current temperature which does not indicate much disparity.
The occurrence of global warming has been denied by other scientists as a fad. These scientists reiterate that the earths climate has not warmed in the past two decades. They argue that the view of the warming of the climate is entirely based on thermometer data. According to them, superior observations from weather satellite and independent radiosonde data from weather balloons contradict this supposition. Non-thermometer data taken from ice cores, tree rings and other proxy data suggest that there is no current warming and the view that the twentieth century was the warmest in the past millennium undermines and misuses such proxy data. In this regard, the proponents of this view hold that this claim that climate models reproduce accurately records of temperature of the past century is spurious.
To those arguing that global warming is real, they attribute this phenomenon to human activities. The simplest measure of this change, according to the proponents of this view, is the earths average temperature which they argue has risen by an estimated 0.7 degree Celsius over the past century. The bulk of this increase has occurred in the past two decades. The implication, according to them, is that the world is going through a period of global warming. Their projection is that the problem of climate change will be worse by the year 2050.
The proponents of these views hold that it is a well known fact that the atmosphere, oceans and land are heating and if the climate model projections on the degree of warming are correct, then the sea levels will continue to rise for the next century. They expect that the glaciers will experience faster rates of melting and there will be significant increases in rainfall intensity. Further, there will be hurricanes. Like those who oppose the reality of global warming, the proponents of these views also hold that these projections are founded on strong scientific data. They dismiss arguments that appear to insist that there is no global warming as unscientifically founded.
The intensity of disagreements that are exuded over what might be expected to be simple issues of scientific knowledge of whether the earth is warming or not is one of the most outstanding dimensions of this debate. The heated public confrontation concerning uncertainty and the state of scientific knowledge leads to very major confusions. The state of political and public debates concerning the issue makes it difficult for non-specialists to comprehend what these advocates are arguing about or to pass judgment concerning the strength of the competing arguments.
The issue of climate change and its possible impacts
Climate change is best conceived as a threat multiplier which aggravates the existing trends, tensions and instability. The main challenge is that it threatens to overburden regions and states that are already unstable and prone to conflict. The risks are not only humanitarian in nature but also encompass political and security risks. With regard to the concept of human security, various issues that are associated with the effects of climate change on international security are interrelated and therefore demand for comprehensive analysis and response.
Global warming has been associated with competition for natural resources. In many parts of the world, there is widespread water shortage, reduction in cultivatable land, dwindling of food and fish stocks, increased flooding and prolonged droughts. The patterns of rainfall are likely to be altered by climate change which will further minimize the available fresh water by 20 to 30 percent in some regions. These impacts have been reported in the southeastern and western parts of the United States which in 2007 experienced severe to exceptional draught. Some researchers have reported that over the past decade, the harsh reality of the global warming has been especially witnessed in America West. The impacts have also been experienced by Australia that recently suffered from heat waves and incidences of wildfires.
The falling water level in Lake Powell and Lake Mead are also some powerful instances of the severity of the water crisis. The two lakes supply water to power to millions of Americans in the American Southwest. It is projected that the two lakes stand a chance of running dry by the year 2021 owing to the increasing demand for water and the impacts of global warming. But the question that is bound to be raised concerns whether these impacts emanate from changes in climatic conditions. Put in another way, can the water crises be attributed to the impacts of climate change A study by Barnett and colleagues investigated this question and reported that an estimated 60 percent of climate associated trends in the flow of rivers, winter air temperatures and snowpack between 1950 and 1999 in the western sections of the United States are human induced through emissions. The shortage of water has the potential of causing civil unrest and result in significant economic losses even in a robust economy like the United States.
A reduction in agricultural productivity will invariably result in food insecurity in least developed countries. Similarly, the shortage of water is likely to have dire consequences in regions under strong demographic pressure. The overall impact is that changes in climate will trigger existing conflicts over depleting resources particularly where access to such resources has been politicized.
It is being approximated that handling climate change may cost the world economy up to twenty percent of global GDP annually. About one-fifth of the worlds population live in coastal regions and this population may go up in the coming years. Large cities, with their supporting infrastructure like oil refineries and port facilities, are often located by the sea or river deltas. The rise in sea levels associated with climate change and global warming, and the magnitude and intensity of natural disasters often pose a serious threat to these regions and their economic prospects. Past disasters have shown that the East coasts China and India, the Caribbean region and Central America are especially vulnerable. Whenever there is an increase in disasters and humanitarian crises, there is always an immense pressure on resources from donor countries.
Scientists have also projected major changes in landmass during the twenty-first century. There is high likelihood that submergence of large sections and receding coastlines may lead to loss of territory which may include entire nations such as small island states. The world may witness increased disputes over maritime borders and lands. Various international laws may have to be amended in order to accommodate the changing territorial composition. Another aspect of competition for energy resources is based on the potential conflict over resources in the polar region which may become exploitable due to global warming. A vicious circle of migration, degradation and conflict over borders and territory would be triggered by desertification and this may threaten the political stability of regions and countries.
The instability in weak states may be significantly increased by climate change through overstretching the capacity of governments to adequately respond to the challenges that they face. This inability of governments to satisfy the needs of the entire population or to offer protection in the face of hardship induced by climate change may motivate frustration, result n in ethnic and religious tension within nations and political radicalization. This may result in instability for countries and even entire regions.
Intensified competition over access and control of energy resources may also result in conflict. This will continue to be a major cause of instability. A large percentage of the worlds hydrocarbon reserves are situated in regions that have been identified to be vulnerable to climate change. Instability is likely to increase in such regions since the majority of oil and gas producing nations are already faced with demographic, social and economic challenges. In this regard, there is high likelihood of instability in such regions. It has the potential of feeding back into the greater insecurity and resource competition. A likely greater use of nuclear energy may result in new proliferation concerns. The scramble for resources is likely to become more intense as hitherto inaccessible regions open up due to the impacts of global warming.
Failure of the international community to critically assess the issue of climate change and global warming is likely to threaten the multilateral system. The effects of climate change are likely to lead to politics of bitterness between people who are seen to be responsible for climate change and those that are feeling its worst impacts. The effects of climate mitigation policies will therefore drive political tensions both within boundaries of a nation and internationally. The potential differences will not only divide the west and the east, north and south but there is also likely to be a south-south aspect especially when the share of Indian and Chinese emissions goes up. In this regard, there will be much pressure on the already burdened international security.
Future Research
The investigation and analysis provided in this paper is entirely based on reports and data from other work. This is because of lack of adequate resources in terms of time and money to conduct a comprehensive research on the issue of climate change and global warming. However, the materials that have been used in writing this paper also present contradictory findings which may not lead to a conclusive analysis. Basically, this paper has been a review of literature on climate change and global warming with very minimal actual research on the topic.
Given time and resources to conduct research on this very thorny issue of climate change and global warming, my major goal would be to investigate how policy makers approach issues of climate change when designing mitigation policy. This is because it is important to know how the policy makers approach this issue in light of the controversy that surrounds climate change and global warming. In order to satisfactorily investigate this issue, I will conduct a conjoint choice analysis which may help in assessing how policy makers exchange criteria in the design of climate change mitigation policy.
This is my preferred method because conjoint choice analysis technique will not require many resources. The technique require respondents to choose the most preferred attribute after being shown various representations of a good described by a set of attributes. The available alternatives vary from one another in the level that two or more attributes take. When the conjoint choice technique is applied, it may bring much information concerning the importance of criteria in suggesting the choice of the optimal policy instrument.
The conjoint choice analysis enables interviews, data collection and data analysis to be conducted online. Therefore, it makes it enables the collection of data from various locations around the world possible which is likely to result in conclusive analysis. The nature of the investigation makes it very difficult to conduct research through traditional methods.
Annotated Bibliography
Dinar, Ariel. Measuring the Impact of Climate Change on Indian Agriculture, Issue 402 of World Bank technical paper, World Bank Publications, 1998
The plethora of books and articles published so far underscores the importance of global warming and climate change. On the other hand, many of these articles criticize the scientific projections of global warming. This book reiterates that most of these criticisms, as well as the seemingly irresolvable controversies surrounding global warming debate are simply a consequence of the inability of general circulation models (GCMs) to accurately present the complex nature of our climate system. Notably, most of these articles have taken issue with the unilateral imposition of carbon dioxide emission standards. However, despite these issues, it the causal role of greenhouse gases has been fully extrapolated and accepted. Sophisticated circulation models are currently being used to project the effects of greenhouse gas emissions on climatic variables like precipitation, temperature and solar radiation.
On the basis of numerical GCMs presented in popular and scientific literature, especially the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO), the book assesses the impacts of global warming on India. The author notes that the lack of variability with the projections makes the predictions of precipitation and temperature unreliable. The strength of this book lies in its comprehensive comparative analysis of the different GCMs used in the prediction of global warming and climate change. The lack of variability as shown in the India case may serve as an impetus for reconciling the differences between the general circulation models.
Edward, Pearson. Dessler, Andrew. The Science and Politics of Global Climate Change A Guide to the Debate. London Cambridge University Press, 1995.
Dessler and colleagues investigate the controversy and confusion that characterize confusion over climate change. They explore the arguments of those who hold that there is clear evidence of a coming climate crisis. They also assess the position of those who argue that there is insufficient evidence to support climate change and global warming.
In their assessment, they unearth the confusions over climate change and global warming even among the supporters. They argue that both the critics and proponents of climate change and global warming may both not be right in their arguments. As such, they argue that non-specialists find it difficult to sort out and assess the contending claims owing to the attempt to present the arguments for and against global warming in a balanced way.
This kind of antagonism stands in the stage for simple individual actions that can be taken to mitigate against global warming. In conclusion, the book offers a way forward in resolving the conflicting positions of critics and proponents of different views of global warming. The book is an important resource for all students interested in environmental law, international relations, and political science, in addition to the science courses.
Emanuel, K.A. Extreme Weather. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 89 v. 3 (2008)347-367.
Emanuel produces a comprehensive analysis of how the United States and Canada has been transformed and is still being transformed by climate change. He places special focus on events that have been categorized as extreme. From his analysis, he finds that North America will experience destabilizing climatic conditions due to greenhouse gas emissions. He employs the current climate models to suggest that the extreme events are likely to be common place. He suggests that extreme weather conditions will likely be the most serious challenges that the society will have to cope with.
Ferrar, Amy. Global Warming Essential Viewpoints, ABDO Group, 2007
This book begins by presenting the case of Glacier National Park located in Northern Montana. For more than ten decades, this park has been welcoming visitors who come to camp, hike, view wildlife, or wade in the pristine streams fed by glacial melts. Driving to go and watch the massive glaciers has been one of the most memorable events for those visiting Glacier National Park. Apart from these tourist ventures, the park is also an important scientific base for the study of global warming and climate change as it houses the Global Climate Change program. It is reported that in 1850, there were one hundred and fifty glaciers covering the northern Montana landscape. However, currently there are only twenty seven glaciers at the park. This is mainly attributable to the rise in temperatures which began in the late 1880s and has never ceased. The book notes that for the past one hundred and fifty years, the earths temperature has risen by an average of 0.76 degrees Celsius. Currently, global warming continues at a rate that can only be compared to the glacial period, some 200,000 years ago.
In a nutshell, the book presents practical examples backed by scientific evidence to show that global warming is not a myth but a reality. The main culprit in the worsening global warming situation is the combustion of fossil fuels such as petroleum, natural gas, and coal for industrial and transportation services. This fossil fuel gives off carbon dioxide which is the principal greenhouse gas.
Analytically, the book is a beginners guide to exploring the various controversies surrounding the global warming debate. By offering practical examples which can be seen by the naked eyes and linking the changes in glacial cover to the global temperature changes, it is a call for countries to limit their emission of carbon dioxide or else face disaster in the future. In core chapters, the book details Ways to Limit Greenhouse Gases, Policymakers Battle Global Warming, What Organizations Are Doing and the Future of Global Warming. The Essential Facts presentation is a useful reminder of the basics of global warming and climate change.
Houghton, John. Global Warming the Complete Briefing. London Cambridge University Press, 2004.
Houghton provides important information about global warming, Earths carbon cycle and the greenhouse effect. It also discusses data on climate and the inferred climate changes of the past. The source describes climate models, simulations and the probable effects of climate change. Even though Houghton concurs that global warming may pose serious threat to future survival, he also acknowledge that that skepticism concerning the subject are justifiable.
The book presents an in depth exploration of the scientific basis of global warming as well as the likely effects of climate change on the society at large. Again, Houghton (2004) goes on to address the various actions that can be taken by individuals, the industrial sector and the government to mitigate the effects of global warming. Being one of the few authors with more than a decade of experience in writing about global warming, the book definitely charts the changes in argument and positions over the more than ten years period.
Mark, Maslin. Global Warming Causes, Effects and the Future. Voyageur Press, 2007.
Maslin defines and provide an overview of global warming. He then looks at the causes of the phenomenon and produces evidence and effects of global warming. According to him, there is sufficient evidence for global warming and what remains to be done is to find solutions for this problem. He proposes what needs to be done concerning this problem which is not far from the solutions that have been forwarded by other authors. The source predicts the likely consequences that might accompany the destruction of the Amazon and Gulf Stream rain forest and Gulf Stream.
Different authors have dealt with the issue of global warming at different levels. Mark (2007), present a very comprehensive analysis of the issue by drawing from a huge base of research evidence to inform the causes, effects, and future expectations. It succeeds in presenting the whole picture of the phenomenon as a whole and offers an insight into the types of measures that can be adopted to ease the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. By specifically pinpointing the Gulf stream and Amazon rainforests as particularly vulnerable habitats whose destruction may spell disaster for humankind, the book indirectly calls for urgent actions to be taken to protect all vulnerable habitats through the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.
Saunders, Stephen, Charles Montgomery, Tom Easley. Hotter Drier the Wests changed Climate. NRDC, 2 (2008).
Saunders and colleagues present climate data taken in particular regions in the United States. According to them, the level of water in two American Lakes is reducing. They further found report on the current trend of draught and floods which they hold to have gone up during the recent times. According to them, these events are consequences of climate change due to global warming. They project that the situation is likely to get worse in the future with a high likelihood of the lakes drying within a period of thirty to fifty years.
Even though Sanders and colleagues present important data on United States climatic changes, these changes cannot be entirely attributed to global warming. The climatic conditions are not dynamic and is therefore are subject to change.
Singer, Fred Siegfried. Avery, Dennis T. Unstoppable global warming every 1,500 years, Rowman Littlefield Publishers, Inc. Maryland, 2007
The fact that the earth is warming is indisputable. Physical evidence also attests to the fact that human emitted carbon dioxide plays only a small role in the warming of the earth. As such it human emitted greenhouses gases should be understood as being mere actors in a natural mild warming phenomenon that characterizes the 1,500 year climate cycle. From the Roman records dating from 200 B.C to 600 A.D, to the medieval histories of Asia and Europe, medieval warming was detected but regarded as climatic shifts rather than being part of continuing phenomena. Thus, even though there exists a wealth of evidence supporting the occurrence of climate changes every 1500, plus or minus 500 years the green house theory has risen in prominence.
The authors present the 1,500 year cycle of climate change drawing from the analysis of Dansgaard and Oeschgers climatic cycle which is supported by studies of ice core in the Arctic, Asia, North America, New Zealand, Antarctic, and Europe. The cycle is also supported by findings of seabed sediment cores, cave stalagnites, fossilized fuel and many more. According to the authors, the earth continually warms and cools. The cycle is undeniable, ancient, often abrupt, and global (Singer Avery, 2010). By presenting the facts surrounding the natural occurrence of 1500 cycle, Singer Avery succeed at showing the insignificance of human related activities in the exacerbating or causing global warming. Most importantly, the author draws the reader to independently read the various causes of global warming and decide the significance of human activities.
In a nutshell, the book presents strong scientific evidence for the role of natural factors in the ongoing global warming and climate change. By analyzing the current changes under the context of the 1500 year climatic cycle, it offers an alternative front for further research. A front which is different from the one offered by those supporting the greenhouse theory. The book is useful for both lecturers, students, and researchers as an in depth reference material.
Singer, Fred. Bad data make global warming a cold case. Wall Street Journal, 2003 p.A17
Singer argues that there is no sufficient data to warrant the claim about global warming. According to him, the available data suggest that proxy data does not suggest any change in the climate over the past few decades as argued by the advocates of global warming.
Singer does not seem to provide any convincing explanation to the recent changes in climatic conditions. This source however makes a strong case for the skeptics as it suggests that the available data may be interpreted to support the view that climate change and global warming are hoaxes.
Even through the author fails to provide sufficient evidence to support the current context where there has been a sudden upsurge in global warming and associated effects, his opinion still holds because it is supported by hundreds of years of climatic data and predictions. However, these data do not explain the rapid changes in global surface temperatures ever since human beings began exploiting fossil fuels, and instituting changes in land use patterns. Nonetheless, the text is a useful information source for the natural causes of global warming and climate change. It is also a useful reference tool for researchers intent on comparing the different arguments posited by different authors in the global warming and climate change debate.
Victor, David. The Kyoto Protocol and the Struggle to Slow Global Warming. Princeton Princeton University Press, 2001.
Even as more evidence of global warming surfaces, the international response to this threat is divisive. Nations are finding it difficult to meet their Kyoto commitment. Developing countries on the other hand do not have any limit to their emissions. David Victor provides an explanation of why the Kyoto Protocol was unlikely to become an effective instrument. He assesses how its collapse provides opportunities to create a more realistic alternative. According to Victor, the international treaties like Kyoto can only function when emission trading becomes functional.
The Kyoto Protocol requires industrialized nations to minimize their greenhouse gas emissions to specific levels. Victor views the collapse of the Kyoto protocol as inevitable. At the same time, he sees it as providing the political space for rethinking strategy. Better alternatives, in his view, will be based on policies meant to control emissions. This source provides an important analysis of the role of nations with regard to global warming and climate change. It looks at the foundational principles of the Kyoto Protocol which was meant to reduce the adverse effects of global warming.
While Kyoto may have been one of the best strategies adopted to curb the increasing global surface temperatures by pushing countries to take decisive steps in curbing their own greenhouse gas emissions, analysis of the text yields insights into the reasons behind its failure in meeting its objectives and the desirability of a better protocol. For students studying the legal measures that can be instituted to curb the increasing global surface temperatures, this book is extremely useful.
Weart, Spenser. The Discovery of Global Warming. London Harvard University Press, 2004.
Weart traces the history of global warming from the moment when world governments and scientists agreed that the Earth is heating up in rate that has not been witnessed before. He also illuminates on how the conclusion concerning global warming was reached by the scientists. According to this source, the conclusion was a consequence of unprecedented twists and turns coupled with formidable intellectual, scientific and political obstacles. He further explains the relationship between politicians and scientists in the face of the issue of global warming. He admits that the issue of global warming and climate change is challenging to scientist and hence full certainty cannot be realized.
It is important to reiterate that for the author to satisfactorily chart the relationship between scientific evidence and politics in the resolution of the climate change phenomenon, the book suggests that given that the legal framework is political in nature, any strategies adopted to curb the worsening global warming trend must be congruent to the political demands in different countries. Despite an avalanche of scientific evidence about the occurrence and potential impacts of the phenomenon, the political establishment has not been able to institute strategies aimed at curbing any additional increases in greenhouse emissions. As opposed to other texts offering just the scientific arguments for either the man-made causes or the natural causes, this book ties together different facets and presents climate change in the context of political, intellectual, and scientific environment.
