Russia, a Nuclear Threat

The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 is believed to have left the Russian Federation with the largest fraction of the Soviet weapons of mass destruction. This legacy has made Russia to hold onto its greater power status even as the economy collapsed in the years that followed the collapse of the Union. Russias nuclear and missile capabilities have presupposed the Federations important role in arms control and nonproliferation policies. As a nuclear power, Russia has continued to pose a nuclear threat to the relative peace being experienced by the neighboring states and the world at large. This paper strives to explore the potentiality of the nuclear threat posed by Russia to the world today by exploring the general trends of the events surrounding the issue.

Historical background
The Soviet nuclear weapon program is said to have started at the time of World War II and was fully realized with the successful development of the atomic bomb in the year 1949. Russia, which succeeded the Soviet Union, became a nuclear state which is party to the nuclear Non- Proliferation Treaty (NPT). It is believed that by 1991, the Soviet Union had an approximated 35,000 weapons in its stock pile which had been reduced from a high of 45,000 that was in store in the year 1986. From the provisions of the 1991, Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) and the 2002 Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT), also known as the Moscow Treaty, the Russian strategic nuclear arsenal is believed to have been reduced to an approximated 3,909 nuclear warheads by January 2009. Moscows stockpile size however remains uncertain since there has not been any accurate tally of the tactical nuclear weapons. The SORT Treaty demands that Russia should carry a reduction of its number of deployed strategic warheads to between 1,700 and 2,200 before the culmination of the year 2012. Russia inherited a massive nuclear weapons production complex an d it is estimated that it has in possession between 735 and 1,365 metric tons of weapon grade-equivalent highly enriched uranium and between 106 and 156 metric tons of military-use plutonium

Russias nuclear Potential
According to the state Department data, as of 1st January 2006, Russia had 4,399 nuclear warheads compared to the 5,966 in the US possession. However, Russia had the upper hand in regard to the throw weight compared to the United States. The weight of the last stage of the missile in Russias context was 2547.7 metric tons whereas the USs was 1797.9 metric tons. Russia has 663 launch installations for the CC-18, 19, 25, and PC- 12M missiles equipped with 2183 warheads. The submarines are built with 292 launching tubes with 1592 warheads. Russia has also 78 strategic bombers with the capability to carry an approximated 624 warheads. According to General-Colonel Victor Esin, the United States anti-missile defense systems will not be able to limit the efficiency of the Russian strategic nuclear forces in the near future. The Russian long range missiles like the Topol-M, Bulava among others are built with powerful complexes to pass through anti-missile defense systems. This is just but a glimpse of the potentiality of Russia as a nuclear powerhouse.

The emergence of the Nuclear Threat
Following the humiliations of the 1990s, grievances over Kosovo, U.S missile defense plans involving Poland and the Czech Republic, and the expansion of NATO towards the East to include the once Soviet satellite states, Russia has come out strongly in retaliation with nuclear threat buoyed by the renewed economic confidence. The START and the Moscow Treaties resulted in reduction of strategic nuclear arsenals by both the United States and Russia. However, at the tactical or short range level, things were different with the US taking drastic measures to reduce its non-strategic nuclear warheads, whereas the Russian Federation was very slow on this. The result has been that Russia has an estimated 5,000 such devices which is ten times higher than the number in possession by the United States. With a sizeable nuclear arsenal, Russia is filled with political and military confidence that can easily trigger war with its neighbors. Russians have been observed to be using threats and in some cases force, to get their way. They still abide to the terms of the various treaties but at the same time they are looking at different ways of developing new and highly advanced ground and submarine based intercontinental missiles together with the modern submarines that can be used in carrying and launching of the weapons. The nuclear weapons remains central to the Russian geopolitical Calculus just like during the Cold War era. This has well been illustrated by the first Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov who claimed that the weak are unloved and unheard at the same time. They are also insulted and therefore acquiring nuclear parity will make the other party to treat them with some respect.

The aggressive Russian Policies
The Russians are well known for their aggressive foreign affairs policies and this sets the stage for a possible nuclear war outbreak. According to the Russian Chief of Staff, Russia is determined to use its nuclear arms preventively as a prophylactic measure in defense of its sovereignty and integrity of both its land and allies. Russias aggressive policies have been exhibited when the Federation begun sending cruise missile-capable Bear H bombers on sallies along the coast of Alaska. There has been claims that Russia would station nuclear weapons in Cuba incase the United States went ahead with the anti-ballistic missile radar in Czech Republic and missile interceptors in Poland. Speculations have also elaborated that Russia would aim nuclear warheads at these two nations if they allowed the US to go on with its project. In 2007 during the G8 summit held in Germany, the then President of the Federation Vladimir Putin announced that Russia was going to retaliate at the planned erection of missile defense shield in Eastern Europe by the United States. He elaborated that Russia was going to acquire new targets in Europe if the US continued with the planned erection of the missile defense systems in Europe. Poland has come under constant threat from the nuclear Russia with the Russian authorities issuing stern warning that Poland would make itself a target incase it allowed the hosting of the missile shield to be erected by the US. This followed a deal that had been signed between the US and Poland over the use of the latters land in erecting the defensive shield. President Medvedev of Russia criticized the move and argued that the defense missiles were aimed at Russia and not rogue states as claimed by the US. Poland was threatened of a nuclear attack from Russia in the event that the deal is implemented

Conclusion
The nuclear war threat by Russia is more real than ever before following the spirited verbal exchanges it has had with its neighbors who refuse to taw its line. Russia seems to be determined to hold onto its most valuable asset in the name of nuclear weapons in an effort to remain significant in world matters. To prove their nuclear capability, they are most likely to subdue their weaker neighbors who are pro-western and may be use nuclear weapons as a matter of consequence. The recent case in which there was military invasion in Georgia by the Russian troops should be a pointer to the possibility of threat posed by Russia to its neighbors. The constant threats should not be viewed as meant to intimidate considering that Russia has massive nuclear arsenal in its stores. Russia is therefore a nuclear threat to the neighboring states and the world as a whole.

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